Predictions of the future have come a long way from summer carnivals, fortune tellers and crystal balls. One thing about predicting is that anyone can do it. All of us have longed to look into the future. Look at all the millions of dollars that have been spent on astrologers. Many people take them very seriously. In fact, Nancy Reagan was known to try and influence his husband’s schedule based on her astrologer’s forecast.
The science of predicting the future has become more and more enlightened this past half century and now instead of Nostradamus and people such as Criswell, we have social scientists trying to determine the future.
Futurists are employed by many Fortune 500 companies to try and predict where we as a society are headed. There are models that break down the factors that may determine the future. One such model uses the headings of Possible, Probable, Preferable and the Wild Card. That gets the Futurist off to a good start. In researching their methods a little further, I came across: what is likely to continue? What is unlikely to continue, and what is novel?
Some of you out there are wondering what does all this have to do with sports. Well, I’m going to try and take a layman’s futurist look at our Minnesota Twins and their players and where they might be headed this year.
Let’s start with Justin Morneau. His future is probably the hardest to predict. Let’s use the first axiom: what is likely to continue? Justin’s fielding of his position was good before the concession and is likely to continue to be good. His gross motor skills and reaction time do not appear to be substantially diminished. This is evidenced by his play at first base and his ability to get around on a fast ball when batting. However, we can’t be sure until after a couple of weeks or more into the schedule if his timing at the plate remains what it was. His age also contributes to his skills continuing at a high level Justin has not yet turned 30 and should be at the height of his career physiologically and, if Jim Thome is any indication, has 10 more years as a top flight hitter.
What is unlikely to continue: his aggressiveness. Most people, if they were Justin Morneau, would be more cautious and their aggressiveness at the plate and on the bases would lessen. Is this going to affect his play? I think it would. To what degree is unknown, but as time goes on and Justin becomes adjusted to his condition, his caution should lessen.
The wild card in the Morneau future analysis is whether Justin is able to conquer his natural fear of another blow to the head while batting. One positive indication has been his ability to stand in the batter’s box this spring without showing any outward signs of fear. His new batting helmet should be of help. Perhaps more importantly, Justin is a tough guy who has played some rough hockey and never backed down.
We all hope that Justin will not be injured, not so much for how that would affect the Twins, but how it would affect Morneau. It would very likely end his career as it did for former Twin Corey Koskie. And perhaps the quality of his life would diminish.
In ending this prediction, I feel that given all the above, Morneau will do well, although somewhat bothered by his injury and while not the hitter of 2010, will still be a very good asset for the Twins in 2011.
