Back in 1987, I knew a guy who was a die-hard Twins fan and followed them closely even though he lived in Kansas. And although the Twins had finished last the previous year, he had a feeling the team would do well in ‘87. Perhaps his subconscious had put two and two togther and came up with that realization.
He wanted to place a bet on the team to win the World Series, but couldn’t find any way to do it. He didn’t know a local bookie and no one he knew was going to Las Vegas. He never got the bet placed. The odds were 150 to 1 against the Twins. Of course Minnesota won and a $100 bet would have paid $15,000. Wow! He did place a bet in 1991, but the odds weren’t nearly as good.
I mention this because the odds against Twins in 2012 are 80 to 1 on a Las Vegas site. It’s never a good idea to gamble, but there is at least one similarity between the ‘87 team and current Twins. Both finished last the previous year and little was expected of them.
I guess the first question a Twins fan might ask is, do they even have a chance to be in the World Series this year? Vegas doesn’t think so, but as we’ve seen, Vegas has been wrong before.
I was mulling that question over and thought, why not? The first positive rationale for success this year was that the Twins have pretty much the same team that was favored to win the division last year with the three major exceptions of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan. In order to meet the loss of Cuddyer and Kubel, general manager Terry Ryan signed Josh Willingham and Michael Doumit. Last year Cuddyer and Kubel hit .284 and .273, respectively. Willingham hit only .246, but he did hit 29 home runs and drive in 98 runs. Doumit hit .303. I know sabermetrics would have much more sophisticated measurements, but this gives us a quick and dirty look.
If I had my choice, I’d probably go with Cuddyer and Kubel, but the two newcomers may do just as well and Doumit gives the team backup catching. We also have to remember the Twins didn’t know what to expect from Nathan last year when he was coming off Tommy John surgery. Matt Capps was scheduled to be the closer and will be again this year.
The shortstop this year is Jamey Carroll and while he is no J.J. Hardy, he will be better than 2011's committee. Looking at the infield, it appears to be the equal of last year’s projected group with the big question mark, as it was last year, being Justin Morneau at first.
The outfield with Willingham, Span and Revere compares with last year’s Cuddyer, Span and Young and appears to be pretty much of a wash. Willingham and Cuddyer grade out approximately equal both hitting and fielding. Span is Span and according to statistical analysis Revere and Young are of equal value to a team. Revere won’t hit as well as Young, but his defense will make up for it.
It looks like a good starting lineup and it may well better last year’s projected team with 2012 starters Span, Carroll, Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, Doumit, Valencia, Casilla and Revere. More speed with less power than 2011.
The elephant in the room is Morneau. More about Morneau next time. Another big big question is pitching. We’ll take a look at the good, the bad and the ugly in the future.
